"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Sharon Begley and those Extra Inches!

Newsweek was once a fine magazine and I must say I subscribed to it in my younger days - How could it sink to the leftist political rag it is today?
Sharon Begley , one of the most biased of todays Environmental journalists,thinks that estimates of sea level rise , far from being exaggerated are on the low side and she tosses around estimates a hundred years in the future as if they were last year's tax return and cast in stone.

 I am indebted to physicist and oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. In a post on the RealClimate blog, he makes a crucial point about the ongoing climate-change backlash: by putting all the focus on how mainstream climate science may have exaggerated the threat of global warming, we're in real danger of ignoring how the threat has been lowballed.

So, just to set the record straight on sea-level rise. The IPCC's worst-case scenario forecasts a sea-level rise of 26 to 59 centimeters (10 to 23 inches) by the end of this century. But that is based on a temperature rise of 5.2 degrees Celsius—whereas the IPCC itself said that temperatures might rise 6.4 degrees Celsius. By lowballing the possible temperature increase, the IPCC reduced the estimate of sea-level rise by six inches, Rahmstorf calculates.
Second, the IPCC chose a date of 2095, not 2100. Picking a date five years sooner reduced the projected sea rise by another two inches.
All this precision, adding 6 inches here and another 2 inches there , micro adjusting model calculations that already have been falsified and we still have another 90 years to go. Sharon thinks we all should be outraged that these meaningless little calculations show we have been shortchanged an extra couple of alarmist inches!
Too silly for words!

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