"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Met Office VS NASA for the Dunce's Cap!

The Met Office has put out an alarmist message of possible fatalities in the future because the city temperatures can be up to 10 degrees C warmer than the surrounding countryside because of Urban Heat Islanding . Of course ,with the Met Office prediction record I don't think anyone should worry too much!

Global warming and the increasing size and density of cities could cause the number of nights when the temperature does not dip below 68F (20C) to rise dramatically, the Met Office found.

In a process known as the urban heat island effect, cities can be up to 18F (10C) warmer at night than the surrounding countryside.
This is because they absorb more heat in the day, which is released from roads, pavements and buildings at night; and because there is more heat being generated by vehicles and other sources.

In 30 years time the Met Office predicts that average temperature will have risen by 3.6F (2C), but that this will be accompanied by an increased frequency of extremely hot spells.
In the summer of 2003, thousands more elderly people died than normal due to the hot weather. Across Europe, there were up to 35,000 "excess deaths".
This was largely due to high night time temperatures. When temperatures do not drop below 68F (20C), the body finds it harder to recover from the heat stress experienced during the day.
Mark McCarthy, a climate scientist for the Met Office, told The Times: "Even in wealthy countries with very high air conditioning use, such as the US, heat is still one of the greatest weather-related causes of mortality."
Vicky Pope, head of climate advice at the Met Office, added: "A 2C rise in average temperatures may not sound very much but there would be a much bigger rise in extreme temperatures on the hottest days and nights."
NOAA has a different view which is that the warmer nights are caused by Global Warming and heat retention does not get a mention.
The study also found that the two-to-one ratio across the country as a whole could be attributed more to a comparatively small number of record lows than to a large number of record highs. This indicates that much of the nation's warming is occurring at night, when temperatures are dipping less often to record lows. This finding is consistent with years of climate model research showing that higher overnight lows should be expected with climate change.
NASA 's Hansen of GISS fame finds that his UHI adjustments lower temperatures in more than half the cases which would only be believed by the most rabid warmophile.
This homogeneity adjustment should serve to minimize the effect of nonclimatic warming at urban stations

on the analyzed global temperature change. However, as discussed by Hansen et al. [1999], it should not be
assumed that the adjustment always yields less warming at the urban station or that it necessarily makes the result for an individual urban station more representative of what the temperature change would have been in the absence of humans. Indeed, in the global analysis we find that the homogeneity adjustment changes the urban record to a cooler trend in only 58% of the cases, while it yields a warmer trend in the other 42% of the urban stations. This implies that even though a few stations, such as Tokyo and Phoenix, have large urban warming, in the typical case, the urban effect is less than the combination of regional variability of temperature trends, measurement errors, and inhomogeneity of station records.
The problem for the Warmist catastrophe-producing department is that they need some consistency as we have Hansen banging the UHI down to negative levels to achieve the scariest warming graph and then we have Vicky Pope launching her scare campaign based on huge UHI effects of up to 10 degrees C.
She is saying that Hansen's non-existent UHI is going to kill people. And of course we have to believe both as the "science is settled".

1 comment:

  1. Yeah right! 'the science is cooked'.
    I could bang on about this tripe all day, the most important thing to remember concerning deaths due to extreme temperature conditions is; climate can kill and COLD is the greatest killer by a distance.