"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Flexible Warmist Scientists Have An Each Way Bet- Can't Lose!
Climate modeler says models predicting global warming in the near future may be wrong and we will see 20 years of cooling before we are all toast. These models that may be wrong can't be of the "science is settled " variety otherwise the consensus of 99.99% of climate scientists would look pretty sillly which in fact they do.The chameleon Warmists always have a new model ready to meet inconvenient data changes like long-term cooling, conveniently ignoring the fact that the old models on which we were supposed to remodel the world are dust-binned to be removed by the alarmist version of Winston Smith. Whatever happens they will be able the say "the" model was right whether it cools or warms.
The world could get colder over the next two decades because of natural changes in the Earth's climate, a leading environmental scientist has warned.
Dr Mojib Latif, one of the world's top climate modellers, believes predictions of imminent global warming may be wrong and that the Earth could be heading for up to 20 years of cooler temperatures.
However, the dip will be temporarily - and the long term trend is still for a warmer planet, he says.
Dr Latif, an author of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and climate physicist at the University of Kiel, Germany, is the latest scientist to question short term predictions of global warming.
His model forecasts that a natural cooling trend could dominate over the next decade - offsetting any rise in temperatures caused by humans, New Scientist reports today.
The cooling will be caused by changes in the atmosphere and ocean currents in the North Atlantic - a phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation.
Arctic freeze: A small melt-lake near Helheim glacier on south-east Greenland near Sermilik Fjord
Risking the wrath of other climatologists, he said the NAO may have been responsible for some of the rapid rise in temperatures of the last three decades.
'But how much? The jury is still out,' he told the conference.
The NOA is now moving into a pattern than could cool the earth, he said.
However Dr Latif still believes that carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels stored underground for millions of years will still warm the planet in the longer term.
Other climate scientists say predicting short term changes in the climate is still too difficult. Phenomena like the NAO and El Nino - where the Pacific Ocean warms for a few years - can lead to significant changes in temperature.
The world's warmest year in recent history - 1998 - was caused by an unusually strong El Nino.
Vicky Pope of the Met Office said natural variability was as important as the long term warming trend when predicting climate change over the next few years.
'In many ways we know more about what will happen in the 2050s than next year,' she said.
What she means to say is that recent short term Met predictions have been absolutely hopeless and she is sticking to long term,equally hopeless predictions on the basis they can't be as easily disproved!
Dr Pope also warned the conference that the dramatic Arctic ice loss in recent summers was partly a product of natural climate cycles - and not just caused by man-made global warming. Early reports suggest there has been less melting this year than in 2007 and 2008.
Although the warmest year on record was 10 years ago, the Met Office says man-made carbon dioxide emissions are still heating up the planet.
The 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1997 while the average world temperatures for 2000 to 2008 are almost 0.2C higher than the average for the 1990s.
While the Met office is predicting warming the world is safe - they have not been right yet!