"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Gillard Approval up While Labor's vote Plummets!

The latest Newspoll has Gillard  on 40% as preferred PM compared to Abbot's 35%. At the same time Labor's primary vote has slipped to an abysmal 30% and the Coalition has a huge 14 point two-party preferred lead.
Perversely this a good result for Abbott who has never had a good personal rating because it is in his interest to keep Gillard , as she is unelectable as "Juliar". If her popularity was sinking Rudd would be the new leader unsullied by the "liar" tag and would be much tougher for Abbott. The longer Gillard is propped up in the electoral ring the better it will be for the Coalition.

A MONTH of intense diplomatic commitments and Barack Obama's visit appear to have lifted Julia Gillard's personal standing, putting her in front of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister for the first time in six months.
But despite the period of prime ministerial travel and policy decisions, Labor's primary vote has slipped back to 30 per cent, snapping a recent steady rise in support. And the Coalition has jumped back to the election-winning lead it held before the round of global summits and state visits that have dominated Australian politics.
Voter satisfaction with the way the Prime Minister is doing her job in the past two weeks was the best since May-June, while the Opposition Leader's approval as preferred prime minister slumped back to its worst since March.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, Mr Abbott's rating as preferred prime minister fell five points to 35 per cent - the lowest in nine months - as Ms Gillard's rose one point to 40 per cent, her highest since July.

Primary vote support for the Coalition rose four points to 48 per cent in the past two weeks - the highest since the beginning of October - while Labor's primary vote fell from a seven-month high of 32 per cent to 30 per cent.
It is the first fall in Labor's primary vote after small but steady increases in the four Newspoll surveys since September, when the ALP vote hit a record low of 26 per cent. The Greens' primary vote fell from 12 per cent to 10 per cent.
Based on second preference flows at last year's election the two-party preferred vote calculation gives the Coalition a lead of 57 per cent to Labor's 43 per cent.


  1. Someone made a comment on The Australian website that the more Juliar is out of the country, the less we dislike her. I think that person's onto something.

  2. Interesting theory. We would probably love her if she never came home :)