"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman
Friday, May 18, 2012
Gillard and Labor doomed says Labor insider.
"Gillard and Labor are doomed "says Graham Richardson former numbers man and senior Labor figure saying that MPs are getting doors slammed in their faces often with "naked hostility". Even following a budget bounce after a cash-splash budget Labor is still ten points behind in the two-party preferred polling. It would be interesting to know what the polls would be if the Libs had a popular leader such as Malcolm Turnbull . Turnbull however is unacceptable to the Coalition because of his warmist views .
In the 1990 election, there was much consternation in Labor circles when the primary vote dipped to 39 per cent. The Democrat and Green preferences heavily favoured Labor, so a victory was narrowly achieved. But Labor is still nine points adrift of that figure and seemingly stuck at historical lows.
There are two reasons I'm pessimistic about the chances of a substantial recovery in Labor's primary vote. First, the message Labor MPs get when they have the courage (and that is sadly what is needed in this climate) to doorknock is much the same as the message I get on the streets.
I have spoken to two Labor MPs who have been doorknocking in the past week. While one was in the inner city and the other regional, the results were the same. Naked hostility is what the MPs faced, door after door slamming in their faces amid the muttering of foul obscenities.