"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman

Saturday, December 15, 2012

IPCC secret draft not so secret!

Delivery of the IPCC report
Claims and counter claims about the draft IPPC report are detailed in the latest Ben Cubby warmist opus in the Sydney  Morning Herald.  Apparently there was a section in the latest draft allocating a large part of warming to solar influences but according to Cubby and Church of the CSIRO that part has now been deleted after a review of peer-reviewed research. Who do they think they are kidding? Are they saying that the solar influence was just whacked into the draft report without any review? That the whole draft report is just some huge document full of un-reviewed science that needs editing? Where I come from a draft is a final document ready for final editing and it seems in this case that the editing that was done on ideological and political grounds removing the solar reference.

EVIDENCE for climate change has grown stronger and it is now ''virtually certain'' that human greenhouse gas emissions trap energy that warms the planet, according to a leaked draft of the next major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
Prepared on behalf of the United Nations every five or six years to summarise climate change research, the panel report draws on hundreds of peer-reviewed papers.
The draft expresses even more confidence than the 2007 report that changes being observed across the planet are historically ''significant, unusual or unprecedented''.
It says that carbon dioxide is the biggest cause of climate change, far outweighing natural causes. The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the highest in 800,000 years.
The draft document - due to be released next year - was leaked by climate sceptic Alec Rawls, who runs a website called ''Stop Green Suicide'' and volunteered as a report reviewer.
Mr Rawls claimed the report contained an ''admission'' that galactic cosmic rays were having a strong influence on the Earth's climate.
But a lead author of the relevant section of the report, Professor Steve Sherwood of the University of NSW, said the theory had been rejected later in the report after a review of peer-reviewed research.
John Church, a lead author of the report and a senior CSIRO scientist, said: ''The report is still a working draft and these people have had access under conditions of not releasing the draft and not passing it on, and they have broken that agreement.''
Dr Church said the weight of evidence linking human activity and climate change had strengthened since the previous report.
The draft builds on the findings of the previous IPCC report that warming of the climate system is ''unequivocal''.



  1. It is worth reading the draft Summary for Policymakers. There is a lot more that is significant than an admission that solar influences are greater than previously thought.
    A quick scanning of the SPM includes
    1. Sea level rise is not accelerating. In fact the recent rise since 1993 is similar to the 1930-1950 period.
    2. A shift from global surface temperatures to warming of the oceans.
    3. Ice melt not accelerating.
    4. Admission that aerosol impact was overstated in 2007.

    My view on 14th December is at http://manicbeancounter.com/2012/12/14/ar5-first-order-draft-summary-for-policymakers-a-few-notes-on-pages-1-to-8/

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